Last week, I wrote about the cui bono concept—the presumption
that wrongdoers generally do wrong because they rightly or wrongly expect some
benefit to accrue to themselves as a result—and I applied it to the spate of
untruths that seem just lately to have been functioning almost as the stock in
trade of several of our most prominent presidential candidates. Today, I’d like
to apply that same principle to the perpetrators of the horrific events of last
Friday evening in Paris, events that cost 129 innocents their lives and left
352 others wounded, some of whom have died in the last few days and many of the
rest of whom are still hospitalized in critical condition.
Let’s start, however, not in Paris but in Israel, where Rabbi
Yaakov Litman and his eighteen-year-old son Natanel were also murdered
last Friday. The rabbi and his son were ambushed by terrorists as they were
driving last Friday afternoon to Meitar, a small town of 7,500 just northeast
of Beersheba on the always-Israel side of the so-called Green Line. Leaving out
the horrific detail that a Red Crescent ambulance, the Palestinian equivalent
of the Red Cross or the Magen David Adom, apparently sped past the scene of
carnage without stopping, I’d like to focus Rabbi Litman and Netanel’s murder
through the cui bono lens by asking what their murderers expected—or at
least were hoping—to accomplish. Did they hope to bring Israel to its knees by
murdering two innocents? Did they imagine that the settlers in Judah or Samaria
would be so shaken by their dastardly deed that, cowering in fear, they would
simply respond by packing up their things and moving back to pre-1967 Israel?
Surely the answer to both questions is no…but that leads us to ask what they did
expect to accomplish. Did they consider the murder of Jews simply to
constitute its own reward? Or is there an even more sinister, or at least more
calculated, motive lurking behind the latest spate of terror attacks in Israel
on both sides of the Green Line?
Let’s hold that thought while we consider Paris. The basics,
everybody by now surely knows. Seven coordinated attacks at several different
locations in and around the City of Light. Names unfamiliar to most of us just
a few days ago—the Stade de France football stadium, the Bataclan concert
venue, the Petit Cambodge restaurant, the Belle Equipe and Le Carillon bars, the Casa Nostra
pizzeria, the Eagles of Death Metal band, the Molenbeek neighborhood of
Brussels, the Saint-Denis suburb of Paris—are now so familiar that it seems odd
to think that, with the exception of Saint-Denis (home to the famous Gothic
cathedral in which all but three of the kings of France are buried), I myself
hadn’t heard of a single one of those names just a week ago. The simple,
unadorned words of the president of France, “La France est en guerre,” were still
ringing in my ears when, to my semi-amazement, he went on to back up his words
with deeds by actually by going to war and attacking ISIS bases in Syria
vigorously and violently, then by invoking Article 42.7 of the 2009
Lisbon Treaty that requires every member state of the European Union to respond
to armed aggression against any other member “by all the means in their power,”
and then by ordering hundreds of strikes against potential terrorist targets
within France. Clearly, when President Hollande unequivocally labelled the
events of last Friday as “acts of war,” he meant that literally and plans to
conduct himself accordingly. Where France and the rest of the world, including
our own country and Russia, go from here remains yet to be seen. But that
France means to deal with the threat against its citizens forcefully and
meaningfully seems beyond doubt.
As all of this was unfolding, I was still in the middle of Michel
Houellebecq’s novel, Submission. (The author’s name is pronounced as
though it were written “Wellbeck.”) I’d
read one other of the author’s books, his novel The Elementary Particles,
which I found so vulgar as to border on the pornographic. (In my defense, I
should mention that this is the kind of high-class porn that wins international
literary prizes, not the kind they used to sell in midtown sleaze shops before
Mayor Giuliani cleaned things up. But even so I’m still a bit embarrassed to
admit that I read it through to the bitter end.) Submission also has its share of crude
passages, but is a bestseller throughout Europe—and particularly in France,
Germany, and Italy—and is now available in our own country in an English
translation by Lorin Stein published just two months ago.
The novel is set in 2023 and unfolds as the Muslim Brotherhood,
evolved by the early 2020’s into a French political party, almost unexpectedly
gains enough votes in a national election to make it almost impossible for the
actual victors to form a government without them. This kind of parliamentary
wrangling will be familiar to any who follow French (or Israeli or Canadian or
British) politics, but what is truly shocking here is the easy plausibility of
it all. The Socialists win the election, but are obliged to choose between the
Muslim Brotherhood led by a fictional Mohammed Ben Abbes and the far-right
Front National led by the very real Marine Le Pen if they wish to form an
actual government. They weigh their options, but in the end determine that they
will have a better chance of remaining in power if they choose the Muslim
option, which they do. In a matter of weeks, Ben Abbes is the president of
France. What happens next is both predictable and horrific. The unemployment
problem is solved by eliminating most women from the work force. The national
deficit is eliminated by ending mandatory education at age twelve. The problem
of anti-Semitism is “solved” by encouraging Jews to immigrate to Israel. The
university system is closed, then re-opened as a national grid of Islamic
universities with exclusively Muslim faculty members (most of whom are merely
the teachers from the previous system who have chosen to convert to Islam, a
conversion that appears to require almost nothing at all other than a public
declaration of willingness to embrace Islam). By the month, France grows closer
and closer to re-attaining its nineteenth-century glory as other European
countries install Muslim governments and as Morocco, Turkey, and Tunisia join
the EU. French itself regains the supremacy it once had as the language of
diplomacy and world trade.
Of course, the book’s premise is that France has been and still is
so inept at integrating its Muslim population into the fabric of French society
that if the Muslim Brotherhood were to become an actual party, the
entire Muslim population of France—something like 4.5 million people—would vote
en bloc for its list of candidates. (Of course, by 2023, the number of
Muslim citizens in France will be that much greater, particularly if large
numbers of refugees from Syria and other battle-torn Arab lands are admitted.)
Whether that is a reasonable supposition or not is hard to say. Surely not every
Muslim would vote for a Muslim party! But it is also true that the Muslims
of France have not been well integrated into society and that very large numbers
feel themselves to live outside of the intellectual and social milieu that
non-Muslim French citizens consider their natural cultural climate.
Events like the last week’s horror in Paris constitute a major
challenge for French society as a whole. If President Hollande’s war against
ISIS goes well, then the nation will be able to unite behind that victory. But
if it does not go well, and if large numbers of French citizens succumb to base
prejudice and end up further marginalizing France’s millions of Muslim
citizens, thus alienating them even more, then Houellebecq’s premise—that if
and when a serious Muslim political party constitutes itself as a force to be
reckoned with in French politics, the Muslim citizens of France will automatically
and eagerly vote for them—then that premise, now the stuff of novels, may well
become reality.
The challenge facing the French, therefore, is two-fold: to pursue
its war against ISIS in the Middle East and in Europe and to pursue it relentlessly
and with unyielding determination…but also to reach out to French Muslims and
to invite them to join the battle against violent, Islamicist extremism. The
time has clearly come for the Muslims of France to decide as a community where
they stand and to what degree they are willing to stand by their countrymen in
a battle against their own co-religionists. And that brings me back to the cui
bono question that I asked earlier in this letter but didn’t answer: could
the goal of this kind of horrific terror be specifically to goad non-Muslim
France into creating the kind of illiberal atmosphere that could conceivably
make the scenario presented by Michel Houellebecq in Submission a
reality? That—and not the supposition that terror attacks against random civilians
are undertaken merely to terrify—that strikes me as a rational response
to the cui bono question that logic tells us must always be reasonably
asked in the context of criminal acts.
And that brings me back to Rabbi Litman and his son. Why would anyone
choose a car at random and murder its driver and passenger? Could the “real”
goal of those attacks not be to kill this or that person, but to make the
Israeli public even less likely to see the Palestinians as worthy
partners in peace…or even the kind of people with whom one even could live
peacefully in adjacent nations? The mood in Israel is grim these days as random
violence against civilians is on the rise. How could it not be? But the real challenge in these acts of
random terror is not to find a way to legitimize the demonization of an entire
people, but to find a way to combat the bad guys and to encourage the
“regular” Palestinians to seize the reins of leadership and to negotiate a
lasting, just peace with Israel.
Terrorist acts are not random acts of natural violence like
hailstones or earthquakes, but focused, intentional deeds intended to make less
likely the kind of peaceful coexistence between nations and peoples that
extremists fear the most. France is entirely justified in its decision to go to
war with ISIS. The question is whether the effort will make France stronger by
making ISIS weaker…or whether it will just weaken ISIS in Syria or wherever,
but leave the millions of disengaged, disenchanted Muslims in France more than
ready to make real Michel Houellebecq’s dystopian fantasy. That is the question
that churns and roils deep within as I contemplate the events of last Friday
evening against the background of having just read Submission and
internalized its dark, frightening message.