The plot line of The Mikado is
a bit complicated, but the basic idea is that the singers are rejoicing over a
happy marriage about to take place and noting, in four-part harmony, that one
must always rejoice over happy events even without knowing what the
future will bring. (Within the storyline of the operetta, the union being
celebrated is unlikely to endure for more than a single month because the
groom’s execution has already been scheduled for thirty days in the future.
Emil and Adam’s union, on the other hand, I fully expect to be permanent and
enduring. But the deeper point is that love should always be celebrated
for its own sake and not merely because of where it might conceivably lead or
tragically not lead, which idea I certainly can endorse wholeheartedly.) In the
end, no one knows the future. But when two hearts are joined as one and from
two separate individuals emerges a couple wholly devoted to each other’s
welfare—that is a moment to rejoice, not to suffer over your inability to
forecast every twist and turn on the road ahead.
And that is something like the
set of thoughts I bring to the remarkable and—at least by myself—unexpected
departure of Benjamin Netanyahu for greener pastures (or jail) and the no less
unexpected ascension of Naftali Bennett to the office of Prime Minister.
Bennett heads a coalition of, to
say the very least, strange bedfellows. In fact, it would not be entirely wrong
to say that the parties to the new coalition, co-led by Bennet and his unlikely
partner Yair Lapid, are united by more or less nothing at all other than their
wish to send Bibi packing, which goal they have actually managed to accomplish.
So the question isn’t whether the parties to the new government are each
other’s natural allies (which they certainly aren’t) or whether they will attempt
to exploit each other’s wish for the government not to collapse to accomplish
their own goals (which they certainly will), but whether they will be able
effectively and successfully to govern a nation known for its political
fractiousness and, at least recently, political instability. That, more than
anything else, is the question.
They are a very diverse lot, the
partners to this new coalition.
Most unexpected of all, I
suppose, would have to be Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamic Raam party. At
first blush, there shouldn’t be anything too surprising here—Arabs make up
about 20% of the Israeli population and there have been many Arab MKs in the
past. But this is the first time an Arab party has been invited into the
corridors of power as a member of the governing coalition. Is this a sign of
desperation, welcoming into the government people whose allegiance to the
Jewish nature of Israel is beyond tenuous? Or is it a sign of health, and of
great health at that, this notion of a democracy specifically not excluding
citizens from positions of power because of their ethnicity or their faith? I
think I think the latter: part of the democratic process has to be a
willingness to allow all citizens to be represented by the leaders they
themselves choose. And that right cannot be abrogated by their unwillingness to
toe this or that party line. It’s a daring move, bringing Raam in. It could
obviously backfire. But it could also herald a new period in Israeli politics,
one in which the citizenry is represented in the government in an
unprecedented, but ultimately reasonable and fair way. We’ll see.
Bennett himself is the leader of
the Yamina party, a tiny right-wing group that has exactly six seats in the 120-seat
Knesset. That’s both good and bad: good, because Bennett’s retention of power
will obviously have to depend on his ability to compromise with people who are
in many ways totally dissimilar from himself or the other MKs of his own party,
but bad because it means the PM has no natural power base on which to rely and
will almost definitely be at odds with the vast majority of his fellow Knesset
members. Yair Lapid, who heads the centrist and very hopefully-named Yesh Atid
(“There Is A Future”) party, will take over as Prime Minister in two years. (In
the meantime, he will serve as Foreign Minister.) Yesh Atid did better than
Yamina, but they still only have seventeen seats in the Knesset. That means
that together Bennett and Lapid only control twenty-three out of 120
seats. Will there be enough common ground for the members of the government to govern?
Or will the coalition collapse almost immediately now that the only glue
holding them all together—their common loathing of Netanyahu—has vanished with the
object of their loathing himself. I suppose we’ll see about that too.
The other parties in the
coalition are all far more likely to be uncomfortable in each other’s presence
than comfortable. The left-wing Labor and Meretz parties have almost no
important positions in common with the right-wing New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu
parties. Nor does it bode particularly well that the sole centrist party in the
government now is Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party. (Gantz will remain in
place as Minister of Defense.)
It’s also important to notice who
isn’t in the new government. For the first time in a long time, there are no
Haredi parties represented. Whether that will signal a sea-change in Israeli
policy towards drafting ultra-Orthodox young men remains to be seen, as also
remains to be seen whether the new coalition will have the strength finally to
break the Orthodox stranglehold on matters of personal status (like marriage
and divorce) and to offer a fair deal to non-Orthodox Jews in Israel whose tax shekels
pay the salaries of the nation’s Orthodox rabbis but who must also pay dues to
their own synagogues to support their own clergy. It’s unlikely that the
coalition will want to step too heavily on the toes of the nation’s
ultra-Orthodox population. On the other hand, the possibility of change with
respect to the imperious, self-righteous way the chief rabbinate has been
permitted to impose its will on the entire nation is something we can only hope
to see realized.
So the chances of long-term
success are not great. The coalition holds a razor-thin majority of exactly two
seats in the Knesset. (This basically means that for anything at all to be
accomplished, more or less every single member but one of the coalition has to
be on board.) There are eight parties that belong to the governing coalition, a
number only exceeded one single time in the past history of Israel. Whether
that turns out to be the kiss of death or a sign of vibrant democracy at its
most pliable and effective remains too to be seen. On the other hand, the new
government includes nine female cabinet ministers, the most ever. But on the
other other hand, none of the governing parties is led by a Jew of Middle
Eastern or Sephardic origins—not a good sign for a nation in which non-Ashkenazic
Jews have often felt looked over or disregarded.
So, to sum up, there are a
thousand good reasons to expect the Bennett government to collapse momentarily.
The man himself is a bit of an anomaly too—he will be Israel’s first
religiously-observant Prime Minister who appears in public wearing a kippah,
yet he leads a nation overwhelming secular in its orientation. (Whether his
ascension will eventually be seen as emblematic of the nation’s move from the
secular Zionism of the state’s founders to the kind of religious Zionism that
has religion itself at the core of its self-conception—that too will be
revealed only in the future.) He is Israel’s first Prime Minister born to
American parents too, a natural, fluent English-speaker (like Netanyahu) who
will do well on American television—which is key for Israeli politicians who
want to win the hearts of the American public. But, of course, Bennett is also
a natural Hebrew speaker—which is important since he now leads a nation of native-born
Israelis to whom the ability to speak English well is unimportant and who will
be far more closely tuned into the nuances of his Hebrew-language speeches and
rhetoric.
The Israel of today is not the
Israel of 1948. But neither is it the Israel of 1967 or even of the early
2000s. The nation today, particularly in the wake of the success of the Abraham
Accords, is facing a set of potential foreign policy break-throughs, including
with the Palestinians, that are unprecedented. So maybe the notion of a
coalition that includes left-wing, right-wing, and centrist parties, plus an
Arab party, will turn out to be the perfect government to move Israel
successfully into the next decade, one—and the first—that can truly claim to
represent the widest possible spectrum of opinions and positions. Things could
go south at any moment, obviously. But for the moment I’m hoping for the best
and wishing PM Bennett success in leading his nation forward successfully for
these next two years.